Wednesday, May 11

Why We’re All Far Too Sure of Ourselves

"Being open about uncertainty is not just a case of reporting some kind of statistically-derived “margin of error”. There are many ways for a conclusion to look statistically robust but be wrong. What is needed is to be clear about the underpinning assumptions and open-minded about what would happen if the assumptions were mistaken."
A quick chat with Tim Harford, a man I am certain has some useful observations to share.

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