If most women vote in November, Barack Obama will be re-elected

"An 18 point lead among women puts President Barack Obama ahead of Gov. Mitt Romney 49 – 45 percent among likely voters nationwide, and voters expect 54 – 28 percent that the president will win the debates, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll released today.

"The president leads 56 – 38 percent among women and 94 – 2 percent among black voters, the independent Quinnipiac University poll finds. Men back Romney 52 – 42 percent while white voters back the Republican 53 – 42 percent. {…}

"President Barack Obama won only about 43 percent of the white vote in 2008, so his current standing among whites tracks his earlier winning performance,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. “If the president can match or exceed his 2008 showing among whites it will be difficult to impossible for Romney to win.

"It is also very difficult to win an election when you are getting shellacked among women, the group that makes up about half the electorate."

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